Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Common Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we have now completely no concept who which candidate they really help. Your guess is about pretty much as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, alternatively, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending tens of millions and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his firms will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It actually isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try to sway the election in favor of their most popular candidate, and but, Musk should still discover himself in authorized hassle over his political motion committee’s attainable violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the attainable mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the entire checklist, only a handful of essentially the most fast points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the way aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In spite of everything, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its justifiable share of distractions. They’re already burning poll packing containers, so there’s no cause to consider they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he most likely received’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t neglect about that entire two-tiered justice system we have now that appears particularly geared towards preserving the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to forestall the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s arduous to have a lot religion that the Harris administration received’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with every part.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he really believes, Musk’s habits on Twitter these days actually suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest individual on the earth will maintain him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can be spreading the concept Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, mentioned he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with a great time, I don’t know, but it surely most likely has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that will probably be dangerous information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been utterly divorced from its merchandise and earnings for years now, and with Musk not on the helm, it’s arduous to think about traders wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in any case.
What’s far more fascinating to contemplate is what is going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is generally right here to remain. In a scenario the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless straightforward to see a variety of potential prospects deciding they don’t need to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling folks he plans to crash the financial system when he guts the federal authorities like a non-public fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common folks don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about another electrical automaker, a Harris win can be excellent news. She is going to probably proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and desires to develop the EV business within the U.S. She’ll spend money on clear vitality and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you possibly can count on Harris to be essentially the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO must be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV business as a complete, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can probably influence its gross sales, as nicely. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a beneficial asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing facility magically disappeared in a single day.
By the tip of the second Harris administration, different networks could have caught up, however a minimum of within the close to future, you possibly can’t overlook how essential the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle in opposition to competitors that solely will get more durable each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historic or the Cybertruck actually doesn’t assist issues, both.
In fact, Musk defenders will inform you automobile gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, but it surely’s additionally straightforward to see traders getting spooked and making an attempt to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they modify their technique primarily based on the path they consider Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be just a few credulous rubes who stick round and actually consider Tesla is about to “remedy autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If traders get spooked, issues might in a short time go from dangerous to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is efficacious when it comes to authorities contracts, but it surely isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his life-style. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this entire factor going, and some huge traders exiting might be the falling domino that ultimately brings all of it down. If the inventory worth relies on vibes anyway, dangerous vibes might simply snowball right into a scenario the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the value falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be nervous about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to lift taxes on the wealthy, regulate companies and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Learn to price range like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the folks shall be higher off beneath the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the prospect to do any of that, it wouldn’t be stunning to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they won’t have the ability to afford to outfit a brand new non-public jet or bust unions and abuse staff with out penalties.
Consequently, it’s straightforward to think about a situation the place traders need to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which can be much less more likely to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into arduous to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s attainable that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being a daily electrical automaker and offers up on pretending humanoid robots will really be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as probably as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you assume? Will the inventory crash? Will it’s extra of a sluggish burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk remedy autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as another as a result of there’s no approach to predict the long run. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins could as nicely be a coin-flip, so in the event you haven’t voted already, make double rattling positive you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon able of energy in a second Trump administration.
