The Tesla Full Self-Driving crowdsourced dataset that Elon Musk has authorized has doubled because the CEO shared it final month.
What does it say in regards to the state of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program now?
We have now been complaining for years about Tesla’s lack of knowledge on its Full Self-Driving program. In September 2024, Tesla began releasing month-to-month AI/self-driving roadmap updates and referenced enhancements in some metrics that it wouldn’t even share.
Unsurprisingly, Tesla shortly stopped releasing the month-to-month updates after lacking a number of milestones.
As a result of Tesla has not supplied information, we have now to depend on a less-than-ideal however better-than-nothing crowdsourced dataset.
Tesla followers typically criticized the dataset as a result of it doesn’t make the Full Self-Driving system look nice, nevertheless it’s more durable to do now that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has positively referenced the dataset on two events.
The final time Musk referenced the info, he misrepresented it as confirming “exponential enchancment” by singling out freeway mileage.
This was information again when Musk referenced it final month:
Musk notably praised the freeway mileage of 723 miles between disengagement, which was a giant bounce over Tesla FSD v12, however we famous that this was deceptive as a result of v13 lastly merged metropolis and freeway software program stacks to incorporate end-to-end neural nets.
This had been delayed for freeway driving for years. Subsequently, Musk was making an attempt to make this replace seem like an “exponential enchancment” when, in truth, it was merely Tesla lastly utilizing years of growth in metropolis driving and transferring it to freeway driving, which was imagined to have occurred a very long time in the past.
Nevertheless, Musk’s approval of crowdsource information confirms that it’s within the ballpark of what Tesla sees with FSD. In any other case, it could be extremely deceptive for him to share it positively, even when he has misrepresented it to make it look optimistic.
When Musk shared the info, there have been solely 8,000 miles on the brand new FSD v13 replace. Now, the crowdsource dataset has virtually twice as many miles on Tesla FSD v13.
With extra miles, the efficiency truly went down. Miles between disengagement on freeway went from 723 to 624 miles.
Tesla’s main metric has been “miles between vital disengagement,” which is at the moment 489 miles.
The automaker beforehand claimed that v13 would carry “5 to 6x improved miles between vital interventions” in comparison with v12.5.
The common of all v12.5 updates is at 183 miles. Subsequently, it’s truly nearer to a 2.7x enchancment.
The place does Tesla have to go from there?
Ashok Elluswamy, the pinnacle of FSD at Tesla, has beforehand said that for Tesla to allow unsupervised self-driving, Tesla wants to attain the common in miles per essential intervention “equal of human miles between collision,” which stands at 700,000 miles, in accordance with NHTSA.
Electrek’s Take
Sure, a 15,000-mile dataset is kind of restricted, however you FSD followers can’t complain since Elon bragged about it with simply 8,000 miles.
500 miles sounds about proper to me. It signifies that Tesla would wish a 1,400x enchancment to attain the extent of security it mentioned it wants to attain unsupervised self-driving.
Anybody who thinks that is taking place this yr is kidding themselves.
Nevertheless, I imagine that Tesla is working round that. Elon mentioned that Tesla is launching “unsupervised self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June,” and he confirmed that it is going to be performed with “Tesla’s inner fleet.”
This implies a Waymo-style geo-fenced autonomous ride-hailing system assisted by teleoperation – aka what Elon trashed for years and mentioned that Tesla would simply surpassed with its method.
You possibly can deploy such a system with a lot decrease miles between disengagement. One thing like 10,000-20,000 miles is achievable, however the decrease the mileage between disengagement, the messier it is going to be.
In a restricted geo-fenced surroundings, Tesla might presumably obtain that by June in Austin.
The factor that Tesla followers want to grasp is that this can solely imply that Tesla might be the place Waymo was years in the past. It gained’t get them nearer to what Elon has been promising for years: unsupervised self-driving for your complete buyer fleet constructed since 2016.
Tesla would wish to scale like Waymo is, which Elon has been claiming will not be scalable.
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